How the West will be won...or Western Conference Preview

The pro sports world is not what it used to be: Massachusetts and Indiana used to be Basketball States, while Texas has always been Football Country. Now, Indianapolis and New England are winning Superbowls, while Texas has possibly the best three teams (not calling Phoenix home) in the NBA...not to mention that they are not supposed to be playing baseball in Colorado in October.

The Western Conference is So Damn Good that the 7th or 8th best team would be good enough to win the East. Just put the Lakers or the Nuggets out there and see. The big question in the Conference is that there are at least 4 teams with a real chance of winning it all, those being the Texas Trio and yours Suns and 3-4 more with a chance of being very competitive in Golden State, Denver, Utah and Kobe's bunch.

Anyway, here's a quick roundup and some predictions: Division Champs and other divisional notes

Northwest: Utah. The Jazz are good, possibly not that good to repeat last year playoffs' run but with a core of Deron Williams, Kirilienko and Boozer they'll contend. Denver is also a very interesting team and a full season of A.I. and Melo playing together could make the difference as they'll give the Jazz a tough run for the division title. Don't forget they won 16 of their last 22 regular season games last year. The big rebuilding projects up in the Northwest will have to wait a couple more years, the loss of Greg Oden will slow the Blazers' development process while the Sonics will ride Kevin Durant and his huge talent and build from there. Don't expect much this season anyway. Hey ! what are the Boston Celtics doing here? no...wait a minute they're the Timberwolves now. Minnesota has talent but they won't go anywhere for 2-3 more years, the key will be to see if coach Wittman can develop a "real" team and create a consistent improvement plan that could make them contenders in a few seasons.

Pacific: Suns. The Suns are so much better than the rest of the division they'll literally run away with it. I'll deal with the Suns in depth in a few days but let's just say they have everything: best point guard in the game, great coach, talent everywhere. The rest of the division is not even close. I expect a surprise season by the Warriors riding their great playoffs' run of last season. They have talent (Ellis, Davis, Belinelli, Jackson) and leadership on the floor (Davis again) to reach the playoffs. The Clippers are a good team but will have their best player (Elton Brand) out until at least February; plenty of good and talented players in the backcourt and a star in the making in Livingston won't be enough to contend. The Lakers are Kobe's team, period. He's so good that could make them a playoff team on any given year especially with a good supporting cast like he has now: Fisher will answer last year's biggest headache at the point while Walton and Bynum should keep getting better. I have to mention the Kings, just for the sake of it. Sacramento is not going anywhere and will win some games because Bibby, Martin and Artest are good players.

Southwest: Dallas. This is Texas, baby. Nothing comes easy and you better be ready to shoot! The Mavs on an 82-game season are better then San Antonio and Houston but to win the Division Dirk and the Cubans (they could sign for next season of American Idol as a pop band) will have to forget the Golden State series and got back to what they can do on any given night. The Mavs have possible the best starting five (Harris, Terry, Howard, MVP Nowitzki, Dampier) in the League and are good on both side of the ball. The Spurs are the reigning NBA Champions and they bring back everyone. They're well coached and know how to win games, when it counts, with the best center in the game (Tim Duncan) and Finals MVP Tony Parker at the PG.

Houston is very intriguing and could challenge the Mavs and the Spurs for the title. Scola will be a great addition but the key will be their health; if McGrady and Yao are fine the whole year they could be very very dangerous. They carry one of the best frontline in the League. Coach Adelman is very consistent, so keep a close eye on the Rockets this year. New Orleans could flirt with .500 record this time and will try to ride one the best young PG in the game to have a shot at the post season. Memphis has a few good players and could improve as I expect a very good job by new coach (former Suns' assistant) Mike Iavaroni. I am sure he'll make Paul Gasol a real All-Star.

So, after all...here's what's going to happen:

Playoff Teams: Phoenix, Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, Utah, Denver, Golden State, Lakers

Best Team: Suns in a close call over the Mavs.

Worst Team: I expect Portland to have the worst record in the League comes April. Now imagine they get next season first pick...and get Mayo to play with Oden in 2008/09. Could get a real challenge by the Kings especially of Artest or Bibby get traded to a contender during the season.

Western Conference MVP: Steve Nash. Who else? This could be the year Yao Ming makes a run ath MVP. If he stays healthy and the Rockets win 60-something games, you never know.

Western Conference Rookie of the Year: Kevin Durant. His biggest competitor is out for the year. He'll put up huge numbers on a losing efforts most nights.

Western Conference Champs: I expect the Suns to win the West. They're ready. They were just a flagrant foul and a stupid suspension from winning it all last year.

Go Suns !

The West is the best, but the East is getting better....or Eastern Conference Preview

The East is getting better. Some teams are actually improving in the Eastern Conference. I am not predicting a team from the right side of the map will win the title anytime soon, but they're actually getting better, at least some of them. Here's a quick roundup and some predictions:

Division Champs and other divisional notes

Atlantic: New Jersey. I still think they'll be better day in and day out than Boston and Toronto unless of course they trade Jason Kidd sometime before in February. Of course, Boston has the Big Three and nothing else (but it could be enough to win a playoff series or two) while the Raptors have a very good team in the making, possibly a year or two away from title contention. The Knicks should be very interesting to watch as they have two of the best post-up players in the League in Curry and Randolph and a point guard who's not gonna give them the ball, the one and only Coney Island's Finest, aka Marbury. Philadelphia will have to settle for a few highlights from the jumping Iguodala.

Central: Chicago. This is a very good team with talent (a lot), balance and depth. They could reach the Finals and should win the toughest division in the East. Of course Detroit will be very good (but not great) and Cleveland is still all about LeBron which could prove once again to be enough to reach the Finals; but it won't happen this time. Milwaukee has some talent (i.e. Michael Redd) but too many question marks to contend, including the big Chinese project. Indiana has a very good point guard - center combination (Tinsley and O'Neil) that could even be enough to make the post season in the East but in order to do that a few other players need to raise their games and Tinsley needs to show up every night at his best.

Southeast: Miami. Still like the Heat (Wade has no match in the Conference) better than Charlotte and the Magic, both teams should be much better anyway. Orlando could be good with Howard and new signing Lewis (very good player but definetely overpaid) . The Bobcats lost May for the year before playing a game and that will cost them a chance at the Division; they could be solid anyway. The Wizards have one of the best players in the game, Gilbert Arenas, but basically nothing else is up to the challenge of trying to win the Division.

So, after all...here's what's going to happen:

Playoff Teams: New Jersey, Boston, Toronto, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Miami, Orlando.

Best Team: Chicago. They'll be good, very very good.

Worst Team: Atlanta. They're so consistent in tha dept. I don't feel like going against the odds. They had a very good draft and should improve from last year anyway. They could get a serious challenge by the Sixers this year.

Eastern Conference MVP: Kevin Garnett. He'll score, rebounds and plays in Boston. Should get more votes than LeBron. He's a great player and trade to the East has made him the best player in the Conference.

Eastern Conference Rookie of the East: Al Horford, Atlanta

Celtics record (I think it's worth mentioning since everyone is talking green now): Boston was 24-58 last year but comparing that team with the 2007/08 edition is meaningless. Everyone's new in town. Boston should win 50 games behind the big three.

Eastern Conference Champs: The Chicago Bulls will eventually gain the right to lose to the best team in the West. We all know who we're talking about, aren't we?

Whatever, the West is still (by far) the best..

Go Suns !

Looking for Fantasy Owners

Someone out there on Planet Orange willing to play Fantasy basketball? Here it is !
I have just created an NBA Fantasy Basketball League on Yahoo! You don't need to be a Suns fan but it could actually help ;-)
The League is called Sons of Steve Nash Fantabasket ID 104261 it's a classic 12 team head to head league, just to have some fun. Password is "steve" if you're interested.
I'll just have to check if there's a way in the Commish tools to block any KG trade.

Go Suns !

Listen to Paul Coro's Suns preview on AzSportsHub.com

This time of the year we all start making predictions for the new season as tip off is just a couple of weeks away. Previewing the Suns' 2007/08 season will be somewhat easy: they're good, actually very good, possibly the best team in the League but the Suns season will be judged entirely by the 2008 Playoffs. That's it. Reach the Finals: great year, fail to do so: bad year...yes, is that simple.

Of course how the season ends will be the key, but as coach D'Antoni said recentely to ESPN's Marc Stein it's important the Suns actually enjoy the journey, which is possible even more important than reaching your destination. Thinking about a long journey is often more fun than actually reaching the dreamed destination.

To start enjoying the journey there's nothing better than hear the best Phoenix Sports Journalist, tha Arizona Republic Paul Coro, talk about the 2007/08 Suns. The great interview is avalibale at AzSportsHub.com, aka Arizona's Destination for Sports.

Go Suns !

Have you ever heard of PER?

Basketball has been well behind other sports in the field of stats analysis despite the facts that the game has a long history of score keeping. It's very easy to score points, rebounds and so on, what is very tough, almost impossible I should say, is try to judge players' performance indipendently by their teams.
In other word, the goal is trying to isolate a player's performance from its context and get an advantage from possible market inefficiencies as they say, or in other words things nobody else actually know but you. That's Moneyball ! which by the way is a wonderful book by Michael Lewis.
From Bill James to Billy Beane this has become (more or less) a "common" practice in baseball with quite a few ball clubs actually getting full advantage of it while it's quite new in the NBA. The first club really into it are the Houston Rockets, who named Daryl Morey as their GM. Morey was/is a computer science/stats expert and an MIT alumni...not your everyday former player getting to the upper floor.


Speaking of analytical approach to the game, ESPN insider and basketball analyst John Hollinger has come up, a few years ago, with this PER index. It was discussed in the Pro Basketball Forecast, an excellent publication from a few years ago. I think the last available was about the 2005/06 season.
The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a rating of a player's per-minute productivity and measure with plenty of statistical adjustments. Now the always analytical Hollinger has come up with predictions about the upcoming season.

Yao Ming, Wade and LeBron are 1-2-3 in the rankings while the first Sun is Amaré Stoudemire at no. 12. Steve Nash will be the 3rd best PER point guard in the game and 19th overall.
Of course we all know he's by far the best in the League and makes everyone around him so much better...that's what Steve's stats will never get.
I guess it's no surprise that almost every basketball analyst on the net is predicting the Rockets to win the West.

By the way, Suns beat Kings, 110-99 in the first game of the preseason. A convincing meaningless win.

Go Suns !

Preseason opens tonight at Sacramento

Tonight at 7.00 PM the Phoenix Suns will finally play an almost REAL game of basketball against the Kings in Sacramento. It's just a little preseason exhibition game but finally it'll be a real game !
The game will be available for free on NBA League Pass.
The Suns will of course be without Amaré, who's getting well quickly and could be ready by opening day, which would be great news. Since Brian Skinner will be out as well our questions about the Suns' big men won't be answered anytime soon.

Enjoy the first game of the year !

Go Suns !