State of the West

While it's quite clear the Eastern Conference Champions will be eventually chosen between Cleveland, Boston and Detroit (I like the Pistons), in the West everything is possible. With less then a month left in the regular season here's what could happen on this side of the moon.

Lakers (48-22) Gasol and Bynum will come back in time for the playoffs, the schedule looks promising with 8 games at home (9 if you count the road game with the Clippers) in the remaining 12. Expect LA to hold on first place in the Pac 5 and the Conference.

New Orleans (47-21) 4-6 over the last 10 on the road could mean trouble as the Hornets will play mostly out of the Big Easy including visits to Cleveland, Boston, Toronto, Orlando, The Lakers and Dallas. Division lead in jeopardy but I think they'll be able to hold on and retain the second overall record in the Conference.

Houston (47-23) That 20-something win streak was amazing but how long can Tracy McGrady and Luis Scola carry this team without Yao remains to be seen. Houston will only play teams within the Conference and mostly on the road, but some of those foes are easy ones (Clippers, Sonics, Kings twice each). Make the playoffs but end up third in the Southwest.

San Antonio (47-23) The "hated" Spurs are starting to get into playoffs mode: tight (dirty) defense, clutch plays, the usual amazing play from Manu and more or less just ugly wins. A tough stretch in the schedule with Houston, Golden State, Utah, Portland and Phoenix in 10 days. 2nd in the division is where they'll end. They'll be there to the end as usual.

Utah (46-25) 7 home games left and since you can't beat this guys in Salt Lake City (30-4) it's good news for them; although you won't find a tougher final stretch of the year (San Antonio, New Orleans, Dallas, Denver, Houston and the Spurs again). Easly win the Northwest and should have a couple of rounds with home-court advantage in the post season.

Dallas (44-26) along with the Suns this is the most interesting team to watch since the whole season has been an emotional roller coaster, and the ride is far from over over since Jason Kidd is still looking for his place, Marc Cuban is still unsure about Coach Johnson's leadership and skills, Josh Howard has lost some of his early season form and above all Dirk could be out for a few weeks. The schedule is so-so, not bad but not too easy as this team needs to find answers now. The Mavs could well win the League or miss the playoffs (Cuban won't stand still in the latter case).

Golden State (43-26) still running at full speed, making each game a tactical mess. Monta Ellis has become one of the best guards in the League and with Davis and Jackson it's never easy to face Nellie's band. The Warriors are trying to hold off Denver for the last playoffs place in the West. The schedule is not easy early on but the end the season with 4-of-5 at home. They'll play the Nuggets twice and those games could mean a lot. I still think they'll make it as the 8th seeded team.

Denver (42-28) the Nuggets are a very good team but a victim of the tough Western Conference. I think they won't reach the playoffs despite the great recent play of Melo and Iverson but they still have a chance and have destiny in their hands (as they say) since they'll play Dallas once, Phoenix and Golden State twice. I don't think they'll make it.

And finally, your Phoenix Suns (47-22). The Suns are finding a new balance, defense has been better, if not good, lately and after a few difficult games Phoenix is again shooting the ball very well. A seven game winning streak is there to prove it. With 13 games to go I expect the Suns to win 9 and possibly lose 4 (Detroit, Boston, Denver and San Antonio all on the road). A 56-26 record should be good for a top four seed and a chance to play at least one at home in the playoffs. Second place in the Division and third in the Conference is what will happen.

And then...I'll just sit down, root for the Suns, and watch. Each team in the West (maybe except the Nuggets should they make it) is very capable of winning it all.

Go Suns !

How the West will be won...or Western Conference Preview

The pro sports world is not what it used to be: Massachusetts and Indiana used to be Basketball States, while Texas has always been Football Country. Now, Indianapolis and New England are winning Superbowls, while Texas has possibly the best three teams (not calling Phoenix home) in the NBA...not to mention that they are not supposed to be playing baseball in Colorado in October.

The Western Conference is So Damn Good that the 7th or 8th best team would be good enough to win the East. Just put the Lakers or the Nuggets out there and see. The big question in the Conference is that there are at least 4 teams with a real chance of winning it all, those being the Texas Trio and yours Suns and 3-4 more with a chance of being very competitive in Golden State, Denver, Utah and Kobe's bunch.

Anyway, here's a quick roundup and some predictions: Division Champs and other divisional notes

Northwest: Utah. The Jazz are good, possibly not that good to repeat last year playoffs' run but with a core of Deron Williams, Kirilienko and Boozer they'll contend. Denver is also a very interesting team and a full season of A.I. and Melo playing together could make the difference as they'll give the Jazz a tough run for the division title. Don't forget they won 16 of their last 22 regular season games last year. The big rebuilding projects up in the Northwest will have to wait a couple more years, the loss of Greg Oden will slow the Blazers' development process while the Sonics will ride Kevin Durant and his huge talent and build from there. Don't expect much this season anyway. Hey ! what are the Boston Celtics doing here? no...wait a minute they're the Timberwolves now. Minnesota has talent but they won't go anywhere for 2-3 more years, the key will be to see if coach Wittman can develop a "real" team and create a consistent improvement plan that could make them contenders in a few seasons.

Pacific: Suns. The Suns are so much better than the rest of the division they'll literally run away with it. I'll deal with the Suns in depth in a few days but let's just say they have everything: best point guard in the game, great coach, talent everywhere. The rest of the division is not even close. I expect a surprise season by the Warriors riding their great playoffs' run of last season. They have talent (Ellis, Davis, Belinelli, Jackson) and leadership on the floor (Davis again) to reach the playoffs. The Clippers are a good team but will have their best player (Elton Brand) out until at least February; plenty of good and talented players in the backcourt and a star in the making in Livingston won't be enough to contend. The Lakers are Kobe's team, period. He's so good that could make them a playoff team on any given year especially with a good supporting cast like he has now: Fisher will answer last year's biggest headache at the point while Walton and Bynum should keep getting better. I have to mention the Kings, just for the sake of it. Sacramento is not going anywhere and will win some games because Bibby, Martin and Artest are good players.

Southwest: Dallas. This is Texas, baby. Nothing comes easy and you better be ready to shoot! The Mavs on an 82-game season are better then San Antonio and Houston but to win the Division Dirk and the Cubans (they could sign for next season of American Idol as a pop band) will have to forget the Golden State series and got back to what they can do on any given night. The Mavs have possible the best starting five (Harris, Terry, Howard, MVP Nowitzki, Dampier) in the League and are good on both side of the ball. The Spurs are the reigning NBA Champions and they bring back everyone. They're well coached and know how to win games, when it counts, with the best center in the game (Tim Duncan) and Finals MVP Tony Parker at the PG.

Houston is very intriguing and could challenge the Mavs and the Spurs for the title. Scola will be a great addition but the key will be their health; if McGrady and Yao are fine the whole year they could be very very dangerous. They carry one of the best frontline in the League. Coach Adelman is very consistent, so keep a close eye on the Rockets this year. New Orleans could flirt with .500 record this time and will try to ride one the best young PG in the game to have a shot at the post season. Memphis has a few good players and could improve as I expect a very good job by new coach (former Suns' assistant) Mike Iavaroni. I am sure he'll make Paul Gasol a real All-Star.

So, after all...here's what's going to happen:

Playoff Teams: Phoenix, Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, Utah, Denver, Golden State, Lakers

Best Team: Suns in a close call over the Mavs.

Worst Team: I expect Portland to have the worst record in the League comes April. Now imagine they get next season first pick...and get Mayo to play with Oden in 2008/09. Could get a real challenge by the Kings especially of Artest or Bibby get traded to a contender during the season.

Western Conference MVP: Steve Nash. Who else? This could be the year Yao Ming makes a run ath MVP. If he stays healthy and the Rockets win 60-something games, you never know.

Western Conference Rookie of the Year: Kevin Durant. His biggest competitor is out for the year. He'll put up huge numbers on a losing efforts most nights.

Western Conference Champs: I expect the Suns to win the West. They're ready. They were just a flagrant foul and a stupid suspension from winning it all last year.

Go Suns !