State of the West

While it's quite clear the Eastern Conference Champions will be eventually chosen between Cleveland, Boston and Detroit (I like the Pistons), in the West everything is possible. With less then a month left in the regular season here's what could happen on this side of the moon.

Lakers (48-22) Gasol and Bynum will come back in time for the playoffs, the schedule looks promising with 8 games at home (9 if you count the road game with the Clippers) in the remaining 12. Expect LA to hold on first place in the Pac 5 and the Conference.

New Orleans (47-21) 4-6 over the last 10 on the road could mean trouble as the Hornets will play mostly out of the Big Easy including visits to Cleveland, Boston, Toronto, Orlando, The Lakers and Dallas. Division lead in jeopardy but I think they'll be able to hold on and retain the second overall record in the Conference.

Houston (47-23) That 20-something win streak was amazing but how long can Tracy McGrady and Luis Scola carry this team without Yao remains to be seen. Houston will only play teams within the Conference and mostly on the road, but some of those foes are easy ones (Clippers, Sonics, Kings twice each). Make the playoffs but end up third in the Southwest.

San Antonio (47-23) The "hated" Spurs are starting to get into playoffs mode: tight (dirty) defense, clutch plays, the usual amazing play from Manu and more or less just ugly wins. A tough stretch in the schedule with Houston, Golden State, Utah, Portland and Phoenix in 10 days. 2nd in the division is where they'll end. They'll be there to the end as usual.

Utah (46-25) 7 home games left and since you can't beat this guys in Salt Lake City (30-4) it's good news for them; although you won't find a tougher final stretch of the year (San Antonio, New Orleans, Dallas, Denver, Houston and the Spurs again). Easly win the Northwest and should have a couple of rounds with home-court advantage in the post season.

Dallas (44-26) along with the Suns this is the most interesting team to watch since the whole season has been an emotional roller coaster, and the ride is far from over over since Jason Kidd is still looking for his place, Marc Cuban is still unsure about Coach Johnson's leadership and skills, Josh Howard has lost some of his early season form and above all Dirk could be out for a few weeks. The schedule is so-so, not bad but not too easy as this team needs to find answers now. The Mavs could well win the League or miss the playoffs (Cuban won't stand still in the latter case).

Golden State (43-26) still running at full speed, making each game a tactical mess. Monta Ellis has become one of the best guards in the League and with Davis and Jackson it's never easy to face Nellie's band. The Warriors are trying to hold off Denver for the last playoffs place in the West. The schedule is not easy early on but the end the season with 4-of-5 at home. They'll play the Nuggets twice and those games could mean a lot. I still think they'll make it as the 8th seeded team.

Denver (42-28) the Nuggets are a very good team but a victim of the tough Western Conference. I think they won't reach the playoffs despite the great recent play of Melo and Iverson but they still have a chance and have destiny in their hands (as they say) since they'll play Dallas once, Phoenix and Golden State twice. I don't think they'll make it.

And finally, your Phoenix Suns (47-22). The Suns are finding a new balance, defense has been better, if not good, lately and after a few difficult games Phoenix is again shooting the ball very well. A seven game winning streak is there to prove it. With 13 games to go I expect the Suns to win 9 and possibly lose 4 (Detroit, Boston, Denver and San Antonio all on the road). A 56-26 record should be good for a top four seed and a chance to play at least one at home in the playoffs. Second place in the Division and third in the Conference is what will happen.

And then...I'll just sit down, root for the Suns, and watch. Each team in the West (maybe except the Nuggets should they make it) is very capable of winning it all.

Go Suns !

Watch out Spielberg !

According to The Arizona Republic Steve Nash sees filmmaking in his future as he already started his cousin.

Check some of his magic on You Tube. That's some director's talent.

I am sure Steve will one day become the greatest film producer in the industry.

Go Suns !

The consequences of trade

A recent Sons of Steve Nash poll, among others, came to the conclusion that the Lakers made the best deal available by trading Paul Gasol for nothing. A real no-brainer. I wish Steve Kerr had asked them first.

The move was clearly much better, from LA point of view at least, than any other Western Conference trade.

But speaking of trades it was interesting to read some nice considerations on pre and post trade team performances in the Moderatly Celebral Bias Blog. A bit strange to hear that after 10-12 games teams more or less failed to show any significant form of improvement. Very interesting, indeed.

This also is a nice occasion to judge the Suns, comparing the pre and post Shaq era. On the always great Bright Side of the Sun I just realized that so far the Diesel-powered Suns actually improved scoring (by a short margin .6 PPG), allowed almost 2 points more, rebounded better while winning percentage actually declined.

The next 5-6 games will be a better judge, after the trip Northwest the Suns will play Houston, Detroit and Boston.

Still not sure what to think about the Shaq trade, anyway.

My heart likes it (Shaq is a great presence, a charismatic man and still can play), my brain still hates it (Shaq is slow, old and is basically ruining the Suns' system).

Go Suns !

Are the Suns willing to play defense?

The Suns defense is awful. We all know that, but I am still not sure of the reason.

The Suns players are individually very poor defenders with the possible exceptions of Bell and Strawberry. Stoudemire is big, athletic but doesn’t have a clue on defense, Hill doesn’t have the size to guard a forward in the League, and so on.

Well documented are Nash’s defensive limitations, i.e. check this very interesting post from the Empty the Bench blog, while "of course" I don't agree with the fact that Nash is overrated.

I actually believe Nash is not that bad one vs. one, at least in trying to drive his opponents where help should be coming. Steve (and more or less everyone else on the Suns team) is lost when opponents start spreading the basketball, playing the passing game and setting consecutive picks.

Did you notice how many open shots Suns’ opponents can take in a game?

The departure of Shawn Marion means the Suns are suffering on the perimeter. Check the stats of the small forwards the Suns faced recently: Anthony scored 30, Gay 36, Iguodala 32, Jamison (playing at SF most of the night) 28 as Raja often has to guard the opponents' small forwards. Raja (AP Photo/Greg Wahl-Stephens) is a very good defender on guards but he’s not big enough to guard much bigger players.

The Suns play possibly the worst pick-and-roll defense in the League. Often opponents play pick-and-roll (even the NBA teams not calling Salt Lake City home), most of the time that’s the play they call to start their offense, with a combination of PG and C (or PF). Against the Suns it means the 2 worst defenders on the team, Nash and Stoudemire, come into action. Shaq is not any better as a pick-and-roll defender.

So the Suns need a good defender at small forward…Marion? Right, back then we needed a big presence in the middle. It can't be solved, I am afraid.

Playing defense is so far away from the Suns state of mind that even if they enter the play with a decent attitude, they just fail to play defense for 24 seconds. They often look more or less lost.

So the question is, can a team of poor individual defenders become a decent defensive team? I think it is possible as it’s mostly a matter of will, attitude, good coaching and work ethic. Let’s just hope it can be feasible in a couple of months.

Go Suns !

The Schedule is against the Suns

Entering today’s game against the Spurs, the Suns (40-22) will have exactly 20 games left in the 2007-08 season.
Of those 20 games Phoenix will have 16 vs. the West and the four games against the East will be played on the road in Detroit, Boston, Philadelphia and New Jersey.
Of those 20 games, 13 will be against teams with winning records.
Before the end of the regular season Phoenix will play 2 vs. the Spurs, 2 vs. the Nuggets, 2 vs. Golden State, 2 vs. Houston. You got it.

It’s time to get worried as the Suns are SERIOUSLY in danger of missing the playoffs or eventually enter the post season with the Conference 7th or 8th seed.

Go Suns !

The STAT project

I can see clearly now.

The Western Conference is getting tougher with each passing day and the Suns need to stay focused and perform sooner than later or could find themselves seeded 4th or 5th in the Playoffs which could be the perfect situation for disaster. How about a first round match up with Dallas or Houston without home court advantage.

Now I understand. The Suns’ moves of the past weeks were not panic driven nor Steve Kerr is dealing with the team with the sense of urgency we believed.

They are indeed rebuilding: around Stoudemire, I understand.

Steve Nash will be gone in a couple of years, Coach D’Antoni much earlier (I am afraid) and the Suns better have a plan to avoid a long way down. So, enter the Big Cactus.

Amaré is not ready to lead the Suns right now, he needed a mentor, a role model on and off the court, a Master he can look at for guidance.

Stoudemire is the only Suns really having great benefit from playing alongside the Big Man. “Before we even get started, Amaré Stoudemire is the best big man in the game right now,” O’Neal said. “I didn’t know he was this good”.

I may sound a bit negative but I guess that’s what watching the whole 48 minutes of the Sunday’s Pistons-Suns game can do for your.

Go Suns !

On trading: Shaq, Kidd and Gasol.

The recent trades of Paul Gasol to the Lakers, Jason Kidd to the Mavs and of course Shaq to the Suns changed three of the best teams in the Conference.

But did they really change the Western Conference Geography? Quite frankly, they did not.

The Mavs, the Lakers and the Suns had to be considered serious contenders even before making those moves but I belive each trade has to be analysed from a different perspective.

Possibily only the Lakers improved without question. LA traded more or less nothing for one of the best forward in the game and once Bynum comes back they should have the core of a potential championship team in the making (don't forget you need three good-to-great players to win the League...unless one is named Jordan).

We know by now that Shaq to the Suns is both a chemistry and a panic move: Marion had to go to improve life inside the Suns' lockeroom and the GM (and the Owner) were getting worried about the Suns inability to beat the best teams in the Conference.

The Mavs Kidd-napping was guided by the desperate need to find leadership. Dallas knew JT and Dirk would not be able to provide the kind of guide needed during a championship run, that Kidd could deliver. Otherwise you don't trade away a very good 24-year-old PG and a couple of draft picks for a player (an All-Star I have to admit) 10 years older.

Of the three, the most intriguing move is the Suns getting the Diesel. I am still not 100% convinced about the trade, as I would have rather traded Marion for, say, Gasol, but tonight game will sure be interesting to watch.

Shaq making his Suns debut against the Lakers, vs Kobe, on ESPN. This is a lucky league, or maybe have the greatesr PR Department in the World.

Go Suns !

Diesel-powered Suns

Would you really put diesel fuel in a race car? That’s what happened to the Suns who traded the fastest forward in the game, one known as The Matrix, for the biggest (and possibly the slowest) center in the NBA.

There are potentially at least two different points of view to look at the trade, both I think come down to the three men in charge: Robert Sarver, Steve Kerr, and Mike D’Antoni.

Sarver and Kerr believe the Suns’ style of play won’t take them to the championship and are desperate to fix it in order to give the Suns a chance to win it all within a year or two, or the time Steve Nash will play in Phoenix.
When the GM and the Owner believe there’s something wrong in the team’s style of play it means the coach is more or less done. Don’t be surprised if, unless the Suns win the championship this year, Mike D’Antoni will be coaching somewhere else next season.
Mike has always preferred a system that didn’t include a classic big static center, now he’s got exactly that.

"If it works, I'm a genius," Kerr said. "If it doesn't, I'm a moron, I guess."

Mike D’Antoni has realized the Suns won’t be able to compete with the best teams in the League (5-9 vs the Western Conference playoffs teams so far this season), especially in the playoffs, simply by running full court. So bring on Shaq and his post presence on both end of the court. The other four Suns can run at will anyway. Shaq could create a lot of difficulties for Duncan, Bynum and co. and could create a very interesting match up for Stoudemire. How many teams have a mobile 7-footer to guard STAT at power forward?

I think Marion wll be missed a lot, especially on defense, since he was by far the best defender on the team and the only player capable of effectively guarding anyone from a shooting guard to a power forward.

Shaq could also bring stability and leadership to the locker room and could help Amaré become a real dominant center in a couple of years, one on which to build the future of the franchise.
That could well be the case and would have a lot more to do with the intangibles Shaq can bring to the Suns than with his real on court contribution. I guess that’s why Shaq got such a huge ovation last night when was introduced at the US Airways Center.

I am planning to order a Shaq # 32 replica jersey any day now.

The trade sounds a lot like a panic-driven move, and Steve Kerr has declared last night the Suns are planning to add another player to their roster over the next couple of weeks. I don’t know who could be leaving (Diaw maybe? Draft picks?) nor coming. Maybe another surprise?

Go Suns ! Go Shaq !

Shaq to Phoenix for Marion and Banks?

It sounds like a joke to me, but actually it seems it could be true, pending a Shaq physical.

For as much as I respect and admire Shaq, a great player in his prime and a very intelligent man, it doesn't make much sense to me. I know the Suns are willing to get rid of Banks' contract...but that's way too much.

The Suns would be trading Marion, 29, their best defender for Shaq, 35 going on 36, slow and basically injuried more often than not.

While a Marion for Kirilenko deal (not to mention anything bringing KG to the Valley) could have made sense, I am sorry, this one does not. Even a Marion for Gasol would have been a much better trade.

Phoenix would get a 20-minute a night player who can defend and rebound. Stoudemire will be moved to Power Forward and Boris Diaw would play a lot more.

I can't see how coach D'Antoni could agree with the move. Unless there's something we don't know, Shaq in a Suns uniform means that there's indeed a strong difference of opinion between the Coach and the GM. That trade would mean Steve Kerr is the guy in charge and that Coach D'Antoni could be out sooner than later.

Go Suns !

Next ten games could be the key for the future

The Suns have the best record in the West after beating the Bobcats on Monday night at 34-14 (.708), they're 8-2 over the last 10 games.

Phoenix is 20-2 (yeah, you got it right, 20 wins in 22 games) against Eastern Conference teams, only 14-12 vs. the West but what's making most of Suns fans worried is the 5-8 record against teams with winning records in the Conference.

Right now, any playoffs matchup, would mean trouble for the Suns. If the regular season ended today Phoenix would play Golden State. Not sure I like the idea.

The Suns' February schedule is the perfect test to check the real value of this team: over the next ten games the Suns will play 7 at home and play 8 games against teams with winning records. Anything less then 7-3 would be disappointing.

Phoenix will face some of the League's best: New Orleans (Feb. 6th), Golden State (Feb. 13th), Dallas (Feb. 14th), The Lakers (Feb. 20th), Boston (Feb. 22nd), Detroit (Feb. 24th) and the Hornets again (Feb. 27th).

Go Suns !

41 DOWN, 41 TO GO. Time for a Report Card

41 down, 41 to go is where the Suns stand right now. We have reached the midway point of the regular season and it's time for a check on the Suns' performance so far.

The Record: 29-12

Phoenix has the best record in the Western Conference and a one game lead on the Lakers in the Division. The Suns are 15-4 at home and 14-8 on the road.

The Division race looks much tighter this time, as the Lakers have really improved and should be able to contend for the Pac 5 crown despite the fact they'll miss Andrew Bynum for a few weeks. Andrew was the League most improved player and was starting to become a dominant NBA center.


The Players (and a 1-10 rating of their respective performance so far)

Stoudemire: (22.5 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 2.18 BPG) big numbers almost every night, poor defense and the sense that he could be better and could actually take over a game almost every night. (8/10).

Barbosa: (17.1 PPG, 3.0 APG) usual spark off the bench. As quick as they come, solid season so far but nothing spectacular (7/10).

Nash: (16.9 PPG, 12.1 APG, 3.63 TPG) Steve is just being Steve...walking around on the Suns' half court (often clueless when his direct opponent doesn't have the basketball) but passing the ball like Tom Brady, leading the League in assists and shooting very well from 3-point range (8/10). Suns co-MVP.

Marion: (16.2 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 1.95 SPG) still unhappy I guess but so far has just played hard every night. Not having his best season stat-wise since he had to give up some shots to Grant Hill but shooting well. Suns co-MVP so far (IMHO), since he's the most consistent player on a very inconsistent season (8/10).

Hill: (15.9 PPG, 4.60 RPG, 3.5 APG) all we expected and possibly more. Great mid range shooting, running well and looking young. Hope he'll recover well from appendicectomy (8/10).

Bell: (11.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.1 APG) Raja started the year with some minor - but annoying - injuries that limited his mobility. He's coming back, shooting better and playing better difense (5/10).

Diaw: (7.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.7 APG): the biggest question mark of the year so far. Seems to have turned the corner, could be interesting to watch him when Grant Hill comes back (4/10)

Banks: (5.4 PPG, 1 APG, 13.0 MPG) he's out of favour with the Coach and has been replaced by Strawberry in the rotation lately. Shooting the ball well from outside, the feeling is the Suns would love to trade him if not for his huge contract (5/10).

Skinner: (3.7 PPG, 4.30 RPG) a nice addition, he's a fighter and a better than expected shooter. Always ready, good signing (6/10).

The rest: D.J. Strawberry is emerging as a role player, hopefully he'll be able to play 10-12 minutes a game untile the end of the year. His defense and hustle could become very useful in the playoffs. Not much to report as Tucker has appeared in 5 games only while Marks and Piatkowski are just there to fill the roster.

Coach D'Antoni

Trying to keep the team focused and motivated which is difficult on a nightly basis when everyone knows their season will rest on playoffs' performance.

Team has showed too much inconsistency and on a few occasions and alarming lack of energy and effort sometimes. He's doing a good job lately as team's performance (and defense) is improving.
Since, nothing less than a Finals appearence will be considered a success and D'Antoni knows well you can't win the Championship in December but you can lose one, he's putting some heat on his team lately.

He's missing Iavaroni as the Suns have been beaten in the paint often this year.

So far, Coach D deserves a 7 (out of 10).

The Mood

Losing often against top teams in the West had all Planet Orange worried (and stil is) but performance is improving (i.e. the nice win against the Lakers). Mood is positive and I think the Suns will be ready for the Playoffs. I am expecting another 30 wins in the next 41, a division title and a top 2 seed in the Conference...then let the battle begin !

Go Suns !

Will the real Diaw please stand up?

A collection of the headlines (just click on the link if you're interested in the complete stories) from The Arizona Republic dealing with our number 3, Monsieur Boris Diaw (Photo AFP) since the start of the season.

- Diaw: Big game "nothing special" (Arizona Republic, Jan. 13th, 2008)

- Diaw's struggles puzzle D'Antoni (Arizona Republic, Dec. 28th, 2007)

- D'Antoni turns up heat on Diaw (Arizona Republic, Dec. 13th, 2007)

- Diaw's selflessness may irk fans but not D'Antoni (Arizona Republic, Nov. 25th, 2007)

- Diaw's selflessness an asset (Arizona Republic, Nov. 24th, 2007)

From this simple selection you pretty much get the idea. Diaw is very talented, has the potential (Je crois) to become a dominant player in this League. Boris has a point guard mind in a power forward frame, not a bad combination to begin with and he should thrive in the Suns' system built on speed, passing and shooting. He's the prototypical NBA modern player: quick, string, tall, good shooter, great passer...

But Diaw is currently averaging 7.2 points and shooting .426 from the field his worst total - so far - as a Sun. His career stats so far:

03-04 Atlanta 25.3 MPG 4.5 PPG 4.5 RPG 2.4 APG
04-05 Atlanta 18.2 MPG 4.8 PPG 2.6 RPG 2.3 APG
04-05 Phoenix 35.5 MPG 13.3 PPG 6.9 RPG 6.2 APG
05-06 Phoenix 31.1 MPG 9.7 PPG 4.3 RPG 4.8 APG
06-07 Phoenix 35.5 MPG 7.2 PPG 4.2 RPG 3.5 APG

In other words, over the last 2 and 1/2 years Diaw's performance has worsened as minutes, points, rebounds and assists have been going down.

When this kind of high-potential player doesn't perform at the expected level everyone start thinking about a lack of motivation. Diaw 's struggles have been the Suns biggest mystery so far, one that coach D'Antoni need to solve as Diaw will eventually be one of the key to the Suns' success in the playoffs.

Any idea? Right now I think:

1. Boris, like Amaré and all the Suns big men, is missing Iavaroni.


2. Boris needs to find certainties (i.e. a stable position) on the court.


3. Boris needs to find some fire back. He's a nice man, with a positive attitude and a French upbringing (in other words not your typical NBA player). Boris lists good food, photography, animals and good wines among the things he likes in his borisdiaw.com Mes Gouts section. I hope Diaw hasn't lost his desire to compete in a struggling period.

Go Boris ! Suns Nation Needs You.

Go Suns !

Suns top the West: Un-happy at 23-9 ?

Coach D'Antoni (AP Photo/Paul Connors) opening training camp last October reaffirmed that the Suns needed to "enjoy the journey".

"It can't be, 'This is all a disaster if we don't win the championship', "You don't enjoy the journey that way and I think we didn't enjoy the journey enough last year", said the Coach to ESPN.com Marc Stein on Oct. 12th, 2007.

At the start of the season it was quite clear that the Suns would have won a lot of games in the regular season but as almost everyone knew, this is a team built to win it all. Anything less than a trip to the Finals will be considered a failure.

Now, in early January, with about one third of the season gone, the Suns have the best record in the West (23-9 on Jan. 4th) but more or less seem one of the unhappiest team in the NBA. Somewhat I think I agree with Marv Albert on that (check the broadcast of the Sonics game last night on TNT)

The Suns have been somewhat inconsistent this year, from game to game and sometime within one single game: on and off; scoring 35 one quarter and then 15 the next.

They have played with a lack of energy, mostly on defense, on various occasions (that e.g. costed loss in Atlanta and Minnesota.)

The Suns have also been outrebounded almost every night. Stoudemire have been fantastic on offense, awful on defense, more or less the same with Steve Nash.

Defense has been poor as the Suns won most of their games just by running over worse teams - those being almost 25 teams in the NBA. Phoenix defense was nothing special last year too, it's no big surprise, but it's very important the Suns put a lot of energy on both side of the floor as playing the lanes on defense is the key to scoring in transition.

Despite all of this, the Suns have won over 70% of their game and are in perfect position to enter the playoffs with the best record (and home court advantage) in the Conference.

So, Why is (almost) everyone so unhappy with the Suns right now?

Were we really expecting to be 32-0 at this point? Of course not.

I think the lack of enthusiasm has a lot to do with just a handful of games, those against the teams the Suns will be playing to win the West next spring: Dallas, San Antonio and the LA Lakers (and maybe to a lesser extent Golden State, New Orleans, Houston and Utah).

Against those big three the Suns are just 1-3, with two painful losses vs. the Lakers (booed at home in the opener and defeated on Christmas). The only win came in San Antonio facing the Spurs without Tony Parker and with Tim Duncan just back from missing a few games with injury.

On those occasions I think we more or less felt a little shiver-down-the-back as we saw a Suns team unable to solve last year's problems: playing against teams with talent and athleticism and defending the inside.

You get the idea, it's more fear, than lack of enthusiasm.

The fear that comes with the idea the Suns have only a 2-year-opportunity to win the championship with their current core of players; the fear that comes with the belief that, if possible, this year will be even tougher.

Go Suns !