Sunday, December 16, 2007

What's going on in Dallas?



At 17-7, writing after the loss in New Orleans, the Suns now head to Texas to face the two best team in the West (not calling Arizona home): San Antonio (18-5) and Dallas (16-9).

While the Spurs are playing well, despite Tim Duncan missing a few games (he's back...don't worry), one of the toughest question in the NBA right now is what's going on in Dallas?

It's such an interesting issue (check the excellent Mavsblog on the Dallas Morning News), even for non-Mavs fans, because it's a perfect example of the thin equilibrium NBA teams are living on, day in and day out, as the key is both technical and psychological.

The Mavs are very good at home (10-2) not so good on the road (6-7) but look like a team in search of its soul on most nights.
Compare it to what they have in San Antonio. The Spurs know where they are, trust their skills, know what to do, who should get the ball when it matters; a classic case of winners' confidence.
The Mavs have possibly the best roster in the NBA and for sure some of the game's most talented players: Nowitzki, Howard, Terry, Harris plus some very good players off bench in Stackhouse, Bass, Diop, Barea. Only the Suns' top six players could match the Mavs talent wise.

They have an excellent coaching staff too, led by one the game's brightest young coach, and an Owner ready to pay what's needed to win.

Yet, despite this they are still looking for certainties. I believe it all comes down to Confidence and Collective Intelligence.

On a basketball court it means that you're expecting the best (a win) in every game because you know the TEAM can find solutions that a single player wouldn't be able to create (unless he's MJ...but that's a different story). It means that a team can actually perform better than the sum of its single players.

Good attitude and good coaching can create some form of collective intelligence and the Mavs have both (like the Suns) but only winning can actually generate optimism and self-confidence and I believe Dallas has not recovered yet from last year's awful loss to the Warriors in the first round of the playoffs and - above all - the terrible loss (up 2-0 in the series with game three in control) to the Heat in the NBA Finals the year before. It won't be easy to get over those.

Imagine how the Mavs will feel when they start the playoffs next spring. The whole season will be a process of self-confidence building and I think Avery Johnson is primarily working on this side of his team. He needs a self-confident Nowitzki, above all.

While the Suns haven't experienced a "dramatic" loss, the way a first round exit is when you're supposed to win it all, Phoenix will somewhat experience the same kind of mental pressure in the Playoffs.

The next couple of games in San Antonio and Dallas should be very interesting.

Go Suns !

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